A Strategic Plan is a Hypothesis, Not a Promise
Marcus Aurelius spent most of his reign as emperor on a military campaign, not in Rome.
He wrote in his private notebook, what we now call Meditations, in a tent, between battles, watching plans fall apart in real time.
If you read Meditations, you will quickly notice how he focuses on staying clear-headed when the plan doesn't survive contact with reality.
After nearly three decades in rooms with leadership teams building strategic plans, here's what I wish more of them understood before they started: a strategic plan isn't a roadmap. It's a hypothesis. Your best guess about the future, based on what you know right now.
But somewhere along the way, plans stopped being treated like hypotheses. They became promises. Leaders defend them instead of testing them. They protect the plan instead of the outcome. Marcus Aurelius didn't see it that way. Neither should you.
I'm seeing why that matters more than ever, because the pace has changed. Change used to be linear. You could see it coming, plan for it, adjust once a year. Now it compounds. Leaders are navigating 10 to 13 major organizational changes a year, and 79% of employees don't trust their organization's ability to keep up. The plan you wrote in January can be obsolete by June.
Adaptability used to be a competitive advantage. Now it is the baseline. Without it, you don't fall behind. You get replaced.
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Sources: Harvard Business Review; All Work, ADP Research
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One of the biggest obstacles to adaptability is legacy thinking. "We already tried that." Sometimes that's the right conclusion. Just as often, it's yesterday making today's decisions.
Recently, we helped a client in higher education build its first strategic plan in decades. The facilities were built in the 1970s. Enrollment grew. A new facility was promised, and promised again. It never came. By the time we sat down with this team, "what's the point" wasn't cynicism. It was 30+ years of evidence. Their skepticism was earned. It was also keeping them stuck instead of moving forward.
What Adaptable Leaders Do Differently
- They separate the outcome from the plan. Committed to the destination, flexible about the route.
- And they reward learning over being right. Changing course isn't a failure. It's evidence they were paying attention.
- When something isn't working, they don't touch the plan first. They ask which assumptions are no longer true.
The Practice
Don't review your strategic plan. Dig into your assumptions.
As you put your week up for review, choose one priority that feels stuck or uncertain.
Ask:
- What are we assuming?
- Is that assumption still true?
- What do we need to learn or test?
- Where do we need help?
Identify one assumption to address.
This Week From the Lab
Every month, we open up a live Power Play for members of the STEER Lab. In July, Amy Larkin and Dan Schiller joined me to talk about leading through change, and what actually holds a team together when the ground keeps moving.
One framework we kept coming back to: acknowledge how hard it actually is. Point to real reasons for optimism. Then commit to getting through it, together. Simple to say. Much harder to do in the room.
▶️ Watch the replay
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PS - A new episode of Pressure Tested is up: Sheehan Stanwick Burch, National Lacrosse Hall of Famer turned broadcaster, on staying grounded when everything around you keeps changing.
▶️ Listen here
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To permanent beta,
Chris
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